Liberal–National Coalition (LNP) polls 2026: 20.7% average & trends in Australia
Australia · Right-wing Polling
Verified average · Roy Morgan · October 2026 · Rank #33 worldwide
Party Leader
Angus Taylor
Current Seats
43 / 150
Last Election
31.8% · 2025
Next Election
2028
More context: Australia polling tracker · election outlook
Polling history · verified readings
Each point is a verified scrape record · hover for details
6M low
20.5%
6M average
30.4%
6M high
41.7%
Verified average · not a prediction
How the average is built
Ø 20.7% = mean of the last 5 verified readings · sources: Roy Morgan, Resolve, Newspoll, YouGov, RedBridge
Roy Morgan
18.5%
2,655
-4.5%
28 Sept – 11 Oct
Resolve
23.0%
2,250
+3.0%
6–10 Oct
Newspoll
20.0%
1,241
-1.0%
5–8 Oct
YouGov
21.0%
1,500
0.0%
29 Sept–6 Oct
RedBridge
21.0%
1,000
0.0%
28 Sept–2 Oct
Headline Ø 20.7% = mean of the last 5 verified readings from Roy Morgan, Resolve, Newspoll, YouGov, RedBridge, recorded 2026-10-15. Full verified history is plotted above — see Methodology.
Live summary · October 2026
Liberal–National Coalition (LNP) polling analysis & live summary — Australia
October 2026 update: Liberal–National Coalition (LNP) polls 20.7% in Australia (poll-of-polls avg of 5 recent verified polls), cooling -4.5 points on the quarter. Latest verified reading from Roy Morgan, recorded 2026-10-15.
That puts Liberal–National Coalition at #33 of 56 tracked parties worldwide. Next vote: Federal on 2028-05-20 (in 582 days). The verified-history chart above plots every stored reading — persistence across releases, not a single headline, is the signal.
Analysis
What the numbers say
Liberal–National Coalition polls 20.7% in Australia (poll-of-polls avg of 5 recent verified polls), down 4.5 points this quarter.
↘ Facing headwinds
Liberal–National Coalition has dropped by 4.5 points to a 20.7% average in Australia (poll-of-polls avg of 5 verified readings), with a -21.0 point shift across the verified window. The pullback does not erase its structural position — but it warrants attention. That places Liberal–National Coalition #33 of 56 tracked parties worldwide, with room to climb toward the leading pack.
The key question is whether this is consolidation or the start of a slide: a second consecutive quarterly decline would suggest the 4.5-point drop is a trend rather than noise. The next round of releases is the decisive test — stabilisation near 20.7% would indicate a floor, while further erosion would force a rethink of strategy, messaging and voter targeting.
Verified basis
5 recent polls
Last update
October 2026
Country
Australia
Quarterly Δ
-4.5 pts
Polling analysis
Liberal–National Coalition (LNP) polls at 20.7% in Australia: current standing, ideology and pollster breakdown
Current standing
Liberal–National Coalition is currently averaging 20.7% in national polling, reflecting a 4.5% shift downward over the last quarter. Liberal–National Coalition currently sits at 20.7% based on verified records. The figure is the mean of verified readings — no generated institutes, no interpolated weeks. Verified source: Roy Morgan, recorded 2026-10-15. accredited readings into a single 20.7% average — smoothing single-poll outliers and opposing house effects. Stabilisation near 20.7% in the next releases would mark a floor; further erosion would confirm a slide. See the full Australia polling tracker and the upcoming election outlook for coalition context.
Key issues & ideology
Coalition ideology fuses Liberal free-enterprise liberalism with National agrarian conservatism. It stands for lower taxes, smaller government, industrial-relations flexibility, support for mining, farming and small business, and a strong US alliance.
Voters asking "who is Liberal–National Coalition?" or "what does Liberal–National Coalition stand for?" find the party classified here as anti-immigration — positioning that explains both its ceiling near 20.7% and where further recovery must come from.
Pollster breakdown: how the 20.7% average is built
The table below shows the verified readings behind the headline (Roy Morgan, Resolve, Newspoll, YouGov, RedBridge — each row names its pollster so the source is fully transparent). Accredited houses tracked for Australia include Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Essential, YouGov, Freshwater, Roy Morgan — see Methodology for inclusion rules.
| Pollster | Figure | Sample | Change | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Morgan | 18.5% | 2,655 | -4.5% | 28 Sept – 11 Oct |
| Resolve | 23.0% | 2,250 | +3.0% | 6–10 Oct |
| Newspoll | 20.0% | 1,241 | -1.0% | 5–8 Oct |
| YouGov | 21.0% | 1,500 | 0.0% | 29 Sept–6 Oct |
| RedBridge | 21.0% | 1,000 | 0.0% | 28 Sept–2 Oct |
Party profile
Liberal–National Coalition: history, ideology and voters
A concise reference on Liberal–National Coalition of Australia — where it comes from, what it stands for, and who votes for it.
History
The Liberal-National Coalition, routinely called the Coalition, is the federal alliance of the Liberal Party of Australia and the National Party that has governed Australia for most of the postwar era. The Liberals were founded in 1944 by Robert Menzies as the party of the forgotten people — the suburban middle class — while the Nationals descend from the Country Party of the 1920s, representing farmers and regional Australia. Together they held power almost continuously from 1949 to 1972 and again under Malcolm Fraser, John Howard (1996-2007) and the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison governments of 2013-2022. The 2022 defeat to Anthony Albanese and Labor, driven by teal independents in blue-ribbon seats and collapse in Victoria, began a difficult rebuild under Peter Dutton. The 2025 election delivered a second Labor victory and a historically poor Coalition result, costing Dutton his own seat and prompting the election of Sussan Ley — the first woman to lead the federal Liberals. State branches, particularly the merged Liberal National Party in Queensland, remain powerful machines, but federally the Coalition faces an identity debate between moderate small-l liberals and Dutton-era conservatives.
Ideology
Coalition ideology fuses Liberal free-enterprise liberalism with National agrarian conservatism. It stands for lower taxes, smaller government, industrial-relations flexibility, support for mining, farming and small business, and a strong US alliance. Climate and energy policy is the sharpest internal divide: the party backs a technology-not-taxes approach, supports gas as a transition fuel and under Dutton adopted nuclear power as a signature policy, while moderates press for stronger emissions action. On social questions the Coalition is a broad church, from progressives who backed same-sex marriage to conservatives who opposed the Indigenous Voice referendum — which the party successfully campaigned against in 2023. Immigration is supported at high levels in principle but weaponised politically around housing and infrastructure pressure. Compared with overseas counterparts the Coalition is a mainstream centre-right formation, economically dry and socially damp in the Menzies tradition, though recent leaders have flirted with culture-war positioning on gender, race and education.
Voter demographics
The Coalition and the base spans affluent suburbs (Liberals) and the bush (Nationals): mortgage-belt families, farmers, miners, tradies and retirees. Queensland and regional New South Wales are strongholds; inner Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra are weak. Older voters, men and the self-employed lean Coalition, while young renters, graduates and culturally diverse inner-city electorates lean Labor or Green. The teal wave exposed the party and the vulnerability among professional women in wealthy seats over climate and integrity. Catholic and evangelical voters tilt Coalition on values; Muslim communities in western Sydney, once contested, have drifted away. Home ownership predicts Coalition support more reliably than income. Turnout is compulsory, so the battle is persuasion rather than mobilisation, fought in some thirty marginal suburban seats where cost-of-living pressures now dominate.
FAQ
Liberal–National Coalition polls: frequently asked questions
What is Liberal–National Coalition polling at in 2026?
Liberal–National Coalition polls 20.7% in Australia as of October 2026, based on the last 5 verified readings. The figure updates with every verified release.
Is Liberal–National Coalition rising or falling in the polls?
Liberal–National Coalition is falling: -4.5 points this quarter in Australia, with the poll average at 20.7%. A second consecutive quarterly move in the same direction would confirm the trend.
How is the Liberal–National Coalition polling average calculated?
The 20.7% headline is the mean of the last 5 verified readings in Australia — including the latest from Roy Morgan. Full rules are on our Methodology page.
When is the next election for Liberal–National Coalition?
The next Federal in Australia is expected around 2028 (2028-05-20). Liberal–National Coalition heads into that race averaging 20.7% — the number to watch as the campaign takes shape.
How does Liberal–National Coalition compare to other right-wing parties worldwide?
Liberal–National Coalition ranks #33 of 56 tracked parties by verified polling average (20.7%) — 3.2 points below the 23.9% board mean. The leaderboard on our overview page re-sorts with every verified release.
What do primary vote polls say about Liberal–National Coalition?
In Australia, "primary vote" searches land on the same verified average: Liberal–National Coalition (LNP) polls 20.7% as of October 2026 ahead of the House of Representatives race. Local trackers and our poll-of-polls converge on this figure — single surveys move it only if confirmed.
What do Newspoll / Resolve Strategic / Essential polls say about LNP?
Accredited houses tracked for Australia include Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Essential. The 20.7% headline is the mean of the last 5 verified readings — so no single Newspoll release decides it alone; persistence across houses is the signal. See Methodology for inclusion rules.
