Nuevas Ideas (NI) polls 2026: 51.3% average & trends in El Salvador
El Salvador · Right-wing Polling
Verified average · IUDOP · October 2026 · Rank #2 worldwide
Party Leader
Nayib Bukele
Current Seats
54 / 60
Last Election
54.7% · 2024
Next Election
2027
More context: El Salvador polling tracker · election outlook
Polling history · verified readings
Each point is a verified scrape record · hover for details
6M low
51.5%
6M average
56.0%
6M high
58.6%
Verified average · not a prediction
How the average is built
Ø 51.3% = mean of the last 3 verified readings · sources: IUDOP, Data Poll, LPG Datos
IUDOP
51.5%
—
-7.4%
Jun 2026
Data Poll
56.0%
960
+9.7%
14–18 Feb 2026
LPG Datos
46.3%
1,200
0.0%
19–25 Jan 2026
Headline Ø 51.3% = mean of the last 3 verified readings from IUDOP, Data Poll, LPG Datos, recorded 2026-10-15. Full verified history is plotted above — see Methodology.
Live summary · October 2026
Nuevas Ideas (NI) polling analysis & live summary — El Salvador
October 2026 update: Nuevas Ideas (NI) polls 51.3% in El Salvador (poll-of-polls avg of 3 recent verified polls), cooling -7.4 points on the quarter. Latest verified reading from IUDOP, recorded 2026-10-15.
That puts Nuevas Ideas at #2 of 56 tracked parties worldwide. Next vote: Legislative on 2027-02-28 (in 135 days). The verified-history chart above plots every stored reading — persistence across releases, not a single headline, is the signal.
Analysis
What the numbers say
Nuevas Ideas polls 51.3% in El Salvador (poll-of-polls avg of 3 recent verified polls), down 7.4 points this quarter.
↘ Facing headwinds
Nuevas Ideas has dropped by 7.4 points to a 51.3% average in El Salvador (poll-of-polls avg of 3 verified readings), with a -3.8 point shift across the verified window. The pullback does not erase its structural position — but it warrants attention. That places Nuevas Ideas #2 of 56 tracked parties worldwide — firmly in the top tier of right-wing polling.
The key question is whether this is consolidation or the start of a slide: a second consecutive quarterly decline would suggest the 7.4-point drop is a trend rather than noise. The next round of releases is the decisive test — stabilisation near 51.3% would indicate a floor, while further erosion would force a rethink of strategy, messaging and voter targeting.
Verified basis
3 recent polls
Last update
October 2026
Country
El Salvador
Quarterly Δ
-7.4 pts
Polling analysis
Nuevas Ideas (NI) polls at 51.3% in El Salvador: current standing, ideology and pollster breakdown
Current standing
Nuevas Ideas is currently averaging 51.3% in national polling, reflecting a 7.4% shift downward over the last quarter. Nuevas Ideas currently sits at 51.3% based on verified records. The figure is the mean of verified readings — no generated institutes, no interpolated weeks. Verified source: IUDOP, recorded 2026-10-15. accredited readings into a single 51.3% average — smoothing single-poll outliers and opposing house effects. Stabilisation near 51.3% in the next releases would mark a floor; further erosion would confirm a slide. See the full El Salvador polling tracker and the upcoming election outlook for coalition context.
Key issues & ideology
Nuevas Ideas is a personalist-populist vehicle more than a programme: Bukelismo blends mano-dura security policy, techno-modernist branding (Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, surf-city tourism, a national library) and anti-corruption rhetoric against the old bipartisanship. Security is the sacrament: the Territorial Control Plan, mega-prison CECOT and the emergency regime that suspended procedural guarantees enjoy 90-percent approval and define the brand continent-wide.
Voters asking "who is Nuevas Ideas?" or "what does Nuevas Ideas stand for?" find the party classified here as right-wing populism — positioning that explains both its ceiling near 51.3% and where further recovery must come from.
Pollster breakdown: how the 51.3% average is built
The table below shows the verified readings behind the headline (IUDOP, Data Poll, LPG Datos — each row names its pollster so the source is fully transparent). Accredited houses tracked for El Salvador include CID Gallup, Iudop, Disruptiva, CEC-UFG, TResearch — see Methodology for inclusion rules.
| Pollster | Figure | Sample | Change | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IUDOP | 51.5% | — | -7.4% | Jun 2026 |
| Data Poll | 56.0% | 960 | +9.7% | 14–18 Feb 2026 |
| LPG Datos | 46.3% | 1,200 | 0.0% | 19–25 Jan 2026 |
Party profile
Nuevas Ideas: history, ideology and voters
A concise reference on Nuevas Ideas of El Salvador — where it comes from, what it stands for, and who votes for it.
History
Nuevas Ideas (New Ideas, NI) was founded in October 2017 by Nayib Bukele after his expulsion as mayor of San Salvador from the leftist FMLN, which accused him of indiscipline and ambition. Denied party registration in time for 2018, Bukele ran for president in 2019 with the conservative GANA and won in the first round with 53 percent, breaking the post-civil-war ARENA-FMLN duopoly. Blocked legislatively by opposition majorities, he used the pandemic, a 2020 military show of force in Congress and relentless social-media campaigning to frame the old parties as corrupt. The February 2021 midterms delivered the earthquake: Nuevas Ideas took 56 of 84 seats, a supermajority unseen since the war, and immediately replaced the attorney general and constitutional judges. The 2024 general election, after a controversial court-approved consecutive re-election bid, gave Bukele 85 percent of the presidential vote and NI 54 of 60 seats in a shrunken Assembly. The state of exception against gangs, renewed dozens of times since March 2022 with 80,000-plus detentions, made El Salvador the hemisphere and the safest country by homicide statistics — and its most contested democracy.
Ideology
Nuevas Ideas is a personalist-populist vehicle more than a programme: Bukelismo blends mano-dura security policy, techno-modernist branding (Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, surf-city tourism, a national library) and anti-corruption rhetoric against the old bipartisanship. Security is the sacrament: the Territorial Control Plan, mega-prison CECOT and the emergency regime that suspended procedural guarantees enjoy 90-percent approval and define the brand continent-wide. Economically the government mixes bitcoin symbolism with pragmatic IMF negotiations, subsidy politics and public works. Socially it courts evangelicals and traditional families while avoiding the culture-war extremes of regional peers. Institutional checks — judicial independence, press freedom, term limits — are treated as obstacles: human-rights organisations allege mass arbitrary detentions, while supporters credit the peace. Comparative scholars describe a millennial authoritarianism: democratically legitimated, digitally performed, and structurally corrosive of liberal guardrails.
Voter demographics
Bukele and the coalition is genuinely multiclass: the poor of gang-plagued peripheries who gained the ability to leave home after dark, the informal vendors and bus drivers freed from extortion renta, middle-class suburbanites craving order, and Miami-linked entrepreneurs. Youth are the vanguard — voters under 35 back NI at the highest rates — alongside women grateful for safer streets. The diaspora, enfranchised remotely, votes Bukele overwhelmingly and funds the movement with remittances and social-media amplification. Opposition remnants cluster among university intellectuals, journalists, former FMLN/ARENA cadres and human-rights-adjacent professionals. Rural smallholders swayed by subsidies and evangelical pastors complete the supermajority. Abstention rises as competition vanishes: with victory assured, NI and the challenge is mobilising satisfied voters rather than persuading undecided ones.
FAQ
Nuevas Ideas polls: frequently asked questions
What is Nuevas Ideas polling at in 2026?
Nuevas Ideas polls 51.3% in El Salvador as of October 2026, based on the last 3 verified readings. The figure updates with every verified release.
Is Nuevas Ideas rising or falling in the polls?
Nuevas Ideas is falling: -7.4 points this quarter in El Salvador, with the poll average at 51.3%. A second consecutive quarterly move in the same direction would confirm the trend.
How is the Nuevas Ideas polling average calculated?
The 51.3% headline is the mean of the last 3 verified readings in El Salvador — including the latest from IUDOP. Full rules are on our Methodology page.
When is the next election for Nuevas Ideas?
The next Legislative in El Salvador is expected around 2027 (2027-02-28). Nuevas Ideas heads into that race averaging 51.3% — the number to watch as the campaign takes shape.
How does Nuevas Ideas compare to other right-wing parties worldwide?
Nuevas Ideas ranks #2 of 56 tracked parties by verified polling average (51.3%) — 27.4 points above the 23.9% board mean. The leaderboard on our overview page re-sorts with every verified release.
What is the Nuevas Ideas (NI) polling average?
Nuevas Ideas (NI) averages 51.3% in El Salvador as of October 2026 ahead of the Legislative Assembly race, based on the last 3 verified readings.
What do CID Gallup / Iudop / Disruptiva polls say about NI?
Accredited houses tracked for El Salvador include CID Gallup, Iudop, Disruptiva. The 51.3% headline is the mean of the last 3 verified readings — so no single CID Gallup release decides it alone; persistence across houses is the signal. See Methodology for inclusion rules.
