Dawn of Nemunas (DN) polls 2026: 12.7% average & trends in Lithuania
Lithuania · Right-wing Polling
Verified average · Vilmorus · October 2026 · Rank #46 worldwide
Party Leader
Remigijus Žemaitaitis
Current Seats
20 / 141
Last Election
15.0% · 2024
Next Election
2028
More context: Lithuania polling tracker · election outlook
Polling history · verified readings
Each point is a verified scrape record · hover for details
6M low
7.3%
6M average
10.3%
6M high
12.7%
Verified average · not a prediction
How the average is built
Ø 12.7% = latest verified reading · latest: Vilmorus
Vilmorus
12.7%
—
+0.3%
Oct 15, 2026
Headline Ø 12.7% = latest verified reading from Vilmorus, recorded 2026-10-15. Full verified history is plotted above — see Methodology.
Live summary · October 2026
Dawn of Nemunas (DN) — Nemuno Aušra polling analysis & live summary — Lithuania
October 2026 update: Dawn of Nemunas (DN) — Nemuno Aušra polls 12.7% in Lithuania (latest verified poll (Vilmorus)), rising +0.3 points on the quarter. Latest verified reading from Vilmorus, recorded 2026-10-15.
That puts Dawn of Nemunas at #46 of 56 tracked parties worldwide. Next vote: Parliamentary on 2028-10-08 (in 723 days). The verified-history chart above plots every stored reading — persistence across releases, not a single headline, is the signal.
Analysis
What the numbers say
Dawn of Nemunas polls 12.7% in Lithuania (latest verified poll (Vilmorus)), up 0.3 points this quarter.
↗ Surging momentum
Dawn of Nemunas polls 12.7% in Lithuania (latest verified reading), gaining +0.3 points over the last quarter with a +4.4 point move across the verified window. That places Dawn of Nemunas #46 of 56 tracked parties worldwide, with room to climb toward the leading pack.
If Dawn of Nemunas can capitalize on current trends, consecutive gains tend to compound through media coverage, donor confidence and bandwagon polling effects. Watch whether the next round of releases confirms the average above 12.7% — a hold above that line would signal consolidation rather than a single-poll outlier, while a second straight quarterly gain would put rivals under severe strategic pressure.
Verified basis
Latest poll
Last update
October 2026
Country
Lithuania
Quarterly Δ
+0.3 pts
Polling analysis
Dawn of Nemunas (DN) polls at 12.7% in Lithuania: current standing, ideology and pollster breakdown
Current standing
Dawn of Nemunas is currently averaging 12.7% in national polling, reflecting a 0.3% shift upward over the last quarter. Dawn of Nemunas (locally listed as Nemuno Aušra) currently sits at 12.7% based on verified records. The figure is the mean of verified readings — no generated institutes, no interpolated weeks. Verified source: Vilmorus, recorded 2026-10-15. accredited readings into a single 12.7% average — smoothing single-poll outliers and opposing house effects. If the next releases confirm Dawn of Nemunas above 12.7%, the quarter counts as consolidation rather than noise. See the full Lithuania polling tracker and the upcoming election outlook for coalition context.
Key issues & ideology
Nemunas ideology is provincial populism with nationalist seasoning: cheap heating, higher pensions, farmer protection, municipal largesse and fury at Vilnius elites, Brussels directives and Kaunas snobbery. The party demands progressive-burden relief for the regions, state pharmacy chains, and the defence of Lithuanian language schooling.
Voters asking "who is Dawn of Nemunas?" or "what does Dawn of Nemunas stand for?" find the party classified here as eurosceptic, national conservatism, right-wing populism — positioning that explains both its ceiling near 12.7% and where further growth must come from.
Pollster breakdown: how the 12.7% average is built
The table below shows the verified reading behind the headline (Vilmorus — each row names its pollster so the source is fully transparent). Accredited houses tracked for Lithuania include Vilmorus, Baltijos Tyrimai, Spinter Tyrimai, Norstat LT, Vilmorus LT — see Methodology for inclusion rules.
| Pollster | Figure | Sample | Change | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vilmorus | 12.7% | — | +0.3% | Oct 15, 2026 |
Party profile
Dawn of Nemunas: history, ideology and voters
A concise reference on Dawn of Nemunas of Lithuania — where it comes from, what it stands for, and who votes for it.
History
Dawn of Nemunas (Nemuno Ausra, PPNA) was founded in late 2023 by Remigijus Zemaitaitis after his expulsion from the Freedom and Justice parliamentary group over antisemitic statements about Israel and the Gaza war — remarks that also drew prosecutorial scrutiny. A former policeman and provincial populist from the Samogitian lowlands, Zemaitaitis built the party in months on cost-of-living fury, farmer anger at environmental rules and anti-establishment showmanship. The June 2024 European election delivered a warning 5.3 percent; the October 2024 parliamentary election delivered the earthquake: 15 percent and 20 seats, third place, as the party swept single-member districts in Samogitia and the west. Coalition talks with the victorious Social Democrats and Democratic Union strained Vilnius and the alliances — the German ambassador, Jewish organisations and liberals protested Zemaitaitis and the inclusion — but the party entered government with ministries, forcing its leader to resign the chairmanship formally while retaining control informally. Through 2025-26 Nemunas polled near 12 percent, the volatile hinge of Lithuanian politics. Zemaitaitis and the 2026 ministerial record — heating-bill subsidies delivered on schedule — complicated opposition efforts to paint the party as ungovernable.
Ideology
Nemunas ideology is provincial populism with nationalist seasoning: cheap heating, higher pensions, farmer protection, municipal largesse and fury at Vilnius elites, Brussels directives and Kaunas snobbery. The party demands progressive-burden relief for the regions, state pharmacy chains, and the defence of Lithuanian language schooling. Its dark edge is Zemaitaitis and the rhetoric about Jews and Israel, condemned across the spectrum and the subject of legal proceedings, which the party frames as free-speech persecution. Economically it is statist-redistributive; culturally traditional-Catholic; geopolitically Atlanticist in word (NATO, Ukraine) while flirting with grievance narratives. Analysts describe a personalist protest party in the Eastern-European mould — ideologically thin, rhetorically thick, institutionally fragile. On local government it promises directly elected elders and village-budget vetoes, hyper-localism as anti-Vilnius doctrine.
Voter demographics
Nemunas voters are western-provincial Lithuania: Samogitian smallholders, Plunge-Telsiai pensioners, shift workers, the indebted and the overlooked. Older, vocationally educated and rural voters over-index massively; Vilnius, Kaunas and the young urban professional class reject it. Former Labour, Order and Justice and Social Democrat voters supply converts; previous abstainers supply the surge. Poles and Russians in the southeast vote their own minority lists, not Nemunas. Women lean slightly less than men toward Zemaitaitis and the abrasiveness. Turnout is emotional: grievance mobilises, satisfaction — ministries, budgets — risks demobilising a base that votes against Vilnius rather than for programmes. Samogitian dialect speakers, mobilised through regional pride as much as economics, give Nemunas its most distinctive cultural base.
FAQ
Dawn of Nemunas polls: frequently asked questions
What is Dawn of Nemunas polling at in 2026?
Dawn of Nemunas polls 12.7% in Lithuania as of October 2026, based on the latest verified reading from Vilmorus. The figure updates with every verified release.
Is Dawn of Nemunas rising or falling in the polls?
Dawn of Nemunas is rising: ++0.3 points this quarter in Lithuania, with the poll average at 12.7%. A second consecutive quarterly move in the same direction would confirm the trend.
How is the Dawn of Nemunas polling average calculated?
The 12.7% headline is the latest verified reading from Vilmorus in Lithuania. Full rules are on our Methodology page.
When is the next election for Dawn of Nemunas?
The next Parliamentary in Lithuania is expected around 2028 (2028-10-08). Dawn of Nemunas heads into that race averaging 12.7% — the number to watch as the campaign takes shape.
How does Dawn of Nemunas compare to other right-wing parties worldwide?
Dawn of Nemunas ranks #46 of 56 tracked parties by verified polling average (12.7%) — 11.2 points below the 23.9% board mean. The leaderboard on our overview page re-sorts with every verified release.
What do reitingai polls say about Dawn of Nemunas (Nemuno Aušra)?
In Lithuania, "reitingai" searches land on the same verified average: Dawn of Nemunas (DN) polls 12.7% as of October 2026 ahead of the Seimas race. Local trackers and our poll-of-polls converge on this figure — single surveys move it only if confirmed.
What do Vilmorus / Baltijos Tyrimai / Spinter Tyrimai polls say about DN?
Accredited houses tracked for Lithuania include Vilmorus, Baltijos Tyrimai, Spinter Tyrimai. The 12.7% headline is the mean of the last verified reading from Vilmorus — so no single Vilmorus release decides it alone; persistence across houses is the signal. See Methodology for inclusion rules.
