Victory Party (ZP) polls 2026: 4.7% average & trends in Turkey
Turkey · Right-wing Polling
Verified average · Kontak · October 2026 · Rank #54 worldwide
Party Leader
Ümit Özdağ
Current Seats
0 / 600
Last Election
2.2% · 2023
Next Election
2028
More context: Turkey polling tracker · election outlook
Polling history · verified readings
Each point is a verified scrape record · hover for details
6M low
2.5%
6M average
5.4%
6M high
6.8%
Verified average · not a prediction
How the average is built
Ø 4.7% = mean of the last 5 verified readings · sources: Kontak, İm Global, SAROS, Asal, Özdemir
Kontak
7.7%
1,773
+5.2%
29 Eyl-4 Eki
İm Global
5.8%
2,105
+2.6%
25-30 Eyl
SAROS
3.2%
4,328
+0.7%
17-26 Eyl
Asal
2.5%
2,015
-1.7%
12-18 Eyl
Özdemir
4.2%
2,020
0.0%
8-14 Eyl
Headline Ø 4.7% = mean of the last 5 verified readings from Kontak, İm Global, SAROS, Asal, Özdemir, recorded 2026-10-15. Full verified history is plotted above — see Methodology.
Live summary · October 2026
Victory Party (ZP) — Zafer Partisi polling analysis & live summary — Turkey
October 2026 update: Victory Party (ZP) — Zafer Partisi polls 4.7% in Turkey (poll-of-polls avg of 5 recent verified polls), rising +5.2 points on the quarter. Latest verified reading from Kontak, recorded 2026-10-15.
That puts Victory Party at #54 of 56 tracked parties worldwide. Next vote: Parliamentary on 2028-05-07 (in 569 days). The verified-history chart above plots every stored reading — persistence across releases, not a single headline, is the signal.
Analysis
What the numbers say
Victory Party polls 4.7% in Turkey (poll-of-polls avg of 5 recent verified polls), up 5.2 points this quarter.
↗ Surging momentum
Victory Party polls 4.7% in Turkey (poll-of-polls avg of 5 verified readings), gaining +5.2 points over the last quarter with a +1.0 point move across the verified window. That places Victory Party #54 of 56 tracked parties worldwide, with room to climb toward the leading pack.
If Victory Party can capitalize on current trends, consecutive gains tend to compound through media coverage, donor confidence and bandwagon polling effects. Watch whether the next round of releases confirms the average above 4.7% — a hold above that line would signal consolidation rather than a single-poll outlier, while a second straight quarterly gain would put rivals under severe strategic pressure.
Verified basis
5 recent polls
Last update
October 2026
Country
Turkey
Quarterly Δ
+5.2 pts
Polling analysis
Victory Party (ZP) polls at 4.7% in Turkey: current standing, ideology and pollster breakdown
Current standing
Victory Party is currently averaging 4.7% in national polling, reflecting a 5.2% shift upward over the last quarter. Victory Party (locally listed as Zafer Partisi) currently sits at 4.7% based on verified records. The figure is the mean of verified readings — no generated institutes, no interpolated weeks. Verified source: Kontak, recorded 2026-10-15. accredited readings into a single 4.7% average — smoothing single-poll outliers and opposing house effects. If the next releases confirm Victory Party above 4.7%, the quarter counts as consolidation rather than noise. See the full Turkey polling tracker and the upcoming election outlook for coalition context.
Key issues & ideology
ZP ideology is hardline Turkish nationalism with a Kemalist-secular accent: the party presents itself as the heir of Ataturk against both Erdogan and the Islamism and Kurdish political demands. Its programme centres on the forced, dignified return of Syrians within one year — cutting aid, ending birthright services, negotiating with Damascus — framed as a demographic survival struggle for the Turkish nation.
Voters asking "who is Victory Party?" or "what does Victory Party stand for?" find the party classified here as anti-immigration, national conservatism — positioning that explains both its ceiling near 4.7% and where further growth must come from.
Pollster breakdown: how the 4.7% average is built
The table below shows the verified readings behind the headline (Kontak, İm Global, SAROS, Asal, Özdemir — each row names its pollster so the source is fully transparent). Accredited houses tracked for Turkey include ORC, MetroPOLL, KONDA, MAK, Yöneylem, ASAL — see Methodology for inclusion rules.
| Pollster | Figure | Sample | Change | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kontak | 7.7% | 1,773 | +5.2% | 29 Eyl-4 Eki |
| İm Global | 5.8% | 2,105 | +2.6% | 25-30 Eyl |
| SAROS | 3.2% | 4,328 | +0.7% | 17-26 Eyl |
| Asal | 2.5% | 2,015 | -1.7% | 12-18 Eyl |
| Özdemir | 4.2% | 2,020 | 0.0% | 8-14 Eyl |
Party profile
Victory Party: history, ideology and voters
A concise reference on Victory Party of Turkey — where it comes from, what it stands for, and who votes for it.
History
The Victory Party (Zafer Partisi, ZP) was founded in August 2021 by Umit Ozdag, a former Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) deputy leader and academic, after his expulsion from the Good Party (IYI) amid feuds with Meral Aksener. Ozdag, a professor of international relations and the son of a 1960-coup minister, built the party as a single-issue battering ram: the repatriation of the roughly four million Syrians and other refugees admitted under Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the open-door policy. Operating with minimal organisation but maximal social-media aggression, ZP unexpectedly shaped the May 2023 elections: its 2.2 percent seemed modest, but Ozdag and the kingmaker endorsement of Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the run-off — in exchange for a secret protocol promising interior-ministry control and refugee returns — forced immigration onto every platform. Detained briefly in 2025 over provocative statements, Ozdag emerged as a martyr of the secular-nationalist fringe. Through 2026 the party polled between 5 and 8 percent, feeding on economic collapse, youth unemployment and street-level refugee tensions that mainstream parties address only obliquely.
Ideology
ZP ideology is hardline Turkish nationalism with a Kemalist-secular accent: the party presents itself as the heir of Ataturk against both Erdogan and the Islamism and Kurdish political demands. Its programme centres on the forced, dignified return of Syrians within one year — cutting aid, ending birthright services, negotiating with Damascus — framed as a demographic survival struggle for the Turkish nation. Beyond immigration it demands the closure of tarikats, the defence of secular education, the prosecution of FETÖ remnants, a unitary state denying Kurdish autonomy, andito-European orientation tempered by anti-American suspicion. Economically it promises planned development, agricultural self-sufficiency and an end to crony construction economics. Stylistically it is confrontational and meme-driven, celebrating deportation buses and wall imagery. Scholars classify ZP as nativist radical right with an unusual secular profile — closer to European anti-Islam parties than to Turkey and the Islamist right.
Voter demographics
The ZP electorate is strikingly young, male and secular: Gen-Z nationalists, university students, unemployed graduates and lower-middle-class youths in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and the Aegean coast. Polls routinely find its strongest scores among voters under 30, especially young men radicalised by femicide cases blamed on refugee criminals, campus politics and gaming-adjacent online subcultures. Secular Ataturkists who find the CHP too soft on refugees, former MHP voters alienated by Bahceli and the alliance with Erdogan, and first-time voters with no party loyalty form the three streams. Women support the party at lower rates; Kurds and religious conservatives reject it almost entirely. Income skews downward: the voters who compete with Syrians for jobs, housing and hospital queues. Turnout is the question — ZP sympathisers are online warriors whose ballot-box discipline remains unproven at scale.
FAQ
Victory Party polls: frequently asked questions
What is Victory Party polling at in 2026?
Victory Party polls 4.7% in Turkey as of October 2026, based on the last 5 verified readings. The figure updates with every verified release.
Is Victory Party rising or falling in the polls?
Victory Party is rising: ++5.2 points this quarter in Turkey, with the poll average at 4.7%. A second consecutive quarterly move in the same direction would confirm the trend.
How is the Victory Party polling average calculated?
The 4.7% headline is the mean of the last 5 verified readings in Turkey — including the latest from Kontak. Full rules are on our Methodology page.
When is the next election for Victory Party?
The next Parliamentary in Turkey is scheduled for 2028 (2028-05-07). Victory Party heads into that race averaging 4.7% — the number to watch as the campaign takes shape.
How does Victory Party compare to other right-wing parties worldwide?
Victory Party ranks #54 of 56 tracked parties by verified polling average (4.7%) — 19.2 points below the 23.9% board mean. The leaderboard on our overview page re-sorts with every verified release.
What do seçim anketi polls say about Victory Party (Zafer Partisi)?
In Turkey, "seçim anketi" searches land on the same verified average: Victory Party (ZP) polls 4.7% as of October 2026 ahead of the TBMM race. Local trackers and our poll-of-polls converge on this figure — single surveys move it only if confirmed.
What do ORC / MetroPOLL / KONDA polls say about ZP?
Accredited houses tracked for Turkey include ORC, MetroPOLL, KONDA. The 4.7% headline is the mean of the last 5 verified readings — so no single ORC release decides it alone; persistence across houses is the signal. See Methodology for inclusion rules.
