Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) polls 2026: 12.8% average & trends in Estonia
Estonia · Right-wing Polling
Verified average · Norstat · October 2026 · Rank #45 worldwide
Party Leader
Martin Helme
Current Seats
17 / 101
Last Election
16.1% · 2023
Next Election
2027
More context: Estonia polling tracker · election outlook
Polling history · verified readings
Each point is a verified scrape record · hover for details
6M low
11.8%
6M average
14.9%
6M high
16.6%
Verified average · not a prediction
How the average is built
Ø 12.8% = mean of the last 5 verified readings · sources: Norstat, Turu-uuringute AS
Norstat
14.2%
1,000
+2.4%
22–27 Sep
Norstat
11.8%
1,000
+0.5%
24–29 Aug
Norstat
11.3%
1,000
-2.6%
17–23 Aug
Norstat
13.9%
1,000
+0.9%
9–15 Aug
Turu-uuringute AS
13.0%
902
0.0%
6–12 Aug
Headline Ø 12.8% = mean of the last 5 verified readings from Norstat, Turu-uuringute AS, recorded 2026-10-15. Full verified history is plotted above — see Methodology.
Live summary · October 2026
Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) — Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond polling analysis & live summary — Estonia
October 2026 update: Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) — Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond polls 12.8% in Estonia (poll-of-polls avg of 5 recent verified polls), rising +2.4 points on the quarter. Latest verified reading from Norstat, recorded 2026-10-15.
That puts Conservative People’s Party of Estonia at #45 of 56 tracked parties worldwide. Next vote: Parliamentary on 2027-03-07 (in 142 days). The verified-history chart above plots every stored reading — persistence across releases, not a single headline, is the signal.
Analysis
What the numbers say
Conservative People’s Party of Estonia polls 12.8% in Estonia (poll-of-polls avg of 5 recent verified polls), up 2.4 points this quarter.
↗ Surging momentum
Conservative People’s Party of Estonia polls 12.8% in Estonia (poll-of-polls avg of 5 verified readings), gaining +2.4 points over the last quarter with a +0.1 point move across the verified window. That places Conservative People’s Party of Estonia #45 of 56 tracked parties worldwide, with room to climb toward the leading pack.
If Conservative People’s Party of Estonia can capitalize on current trends, consecutive gains tend to compound through media coverage, donor confidence and bandwagon polling effects. Watch whether the next round of releases confirms the average above 12.8% — a hold above that line would signal consolidation rather than a single-poll outlier, while a second straight quarterly gain would put rivals under severe strategic pressure.
Verified basis
5 recent polls
Last update
October 2026
Country
Estonia
Quarterly Δ
+2.4 pts
Polling analysis
Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) polls at 12.8% in Estonia: current standing, ideology and pollster breakdown
Current standing
Conservative People’s Party of Estonia is currently averaging 12.8% in national polling, reflecting a 2.4% shift upward over the last quarter. Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (locally listed as Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond) currently sits at 12.8% based on verified records. The figure is the mean of verified readings — no generated institutes, no interpolated weeks. Verified source: Norstat, recorded 2026-10-15. accredited readings into a single 12.8% average — smoothing single-poll outliers and opposing house effects. If the next releases confirm Conservative People’s Party of Estonia above 12.8%, the quarter counts as consolidation rather than noise. See the full Estonia polling tracker and the upcoming election outlook for coalition context.
Key issues & ideology
EKRE ideology is ethnic nationalism: Estonia for Estonians, citizenship through language, resistance to Russian influence and EU federalism. It demands closed borders, the rejection of migration quotas, the defence of the traditional family against gender ideology, and the protection of forests and peat from green centralism.
Voters asking "who is Conservative People’s Party of Estonia?" or "what does Conservative People’s Party of Estonia stand for?" find the party classified here as economic liberalism, social conservatism — positioning that explains both its ceiling near 12.8% and where further growth must come from.
Pollster breakdown: how the 12.8% average is built
The table below shows the verified readings behind the headline (Norstat, Turu-uuringute AS — each row names its pollster so the source is fully transparent). Accredited houses tracked for Estonia include Norstat, Turu-uuringute, Kantar Emor, Ipsos, Turun Uuringud — see Methodology for inclusion rules.
| Pollster | Figure | Sample | Change | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norstat | 14.2% | 1,000 | +2.4% | 22–27 Sep |
| Norstat | 11.8% | 1,000 | +0.5% | 24–29 Aug |
| Norstat | 11.3% | 1,000 | -2.6% | 17–23 Aug |
| Norstat | 13.9% | 1,000 | +0.9% | 9–15 Aug |
| Turu-uuringute AS | 13.0% | 902 | 0.0% | 6–12 Aug |
Party profile
Conservative People’s Party of Estonia: history, ideology and voters
A concise reference on Conservative People’s Party of Estonia of Estonia — where it comes from, what it stands for, and who votes for it.
History
The Conservative People and the Party of Estonia (Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond, EKRE) was founded in March 2012 by merging the agrarian People and the Union with the nationalist Estonian Patriotic Movement, under the Helme family — Mart, the former ambassador, and his son Martin. Entering parliament in 2015 with 8.1 percent, EKRE grew on anti-immigration, anti-Brussels and anti-gender provocations, reaching 17.8 percent in 2019 and joining the Centre-led coalition, where Mart Helme and the interior ministry waged war on the UN migration pact and public broadcasters. The coalition collapsed in 2021; EKRE returned to opposition and took 16.1 percent in 2023, kept out of government by a liberal cordon. Under Martin Helme since 2020 the party professionalised its youth and digital operations while retaining torch-lit marches and Brussels-bashing. Through 2025-26 it polled in the mid-teens, entrenched as the Estonian right and the pole in a fragmenting system, courting Reform Party defectors and Ida-Viru County Russian-speakers with surprising success. The 2026 local elections in Narva, where EKRE fielded Russian-speaking candidates for the first time, signalled how far the outreach strategy had come.
Ideology
EKRE ideology is ethnic nationalism: Estonia for Estonians, citizenship through language, resistance to Russian influence and EU federalism. It demands closed borders, the rejection of migration quotas, the defence of the traditional family against gender ideology, and the protection of forests and peat from green centralism. Economically it mixes flat-tax conservatism with pension and child-benefit populism. The party is hawkish on Russia — demanding border fortifications and opposing Soviet monuments — while echoing Moscow and the talking points on Ukraine aid fatigue, a tension critics exploit. It opposes the euro in rhetoric, accepts it in practice, and cultivates Warsaw-Budapest alliances. Stylistically it is the most confrontational force in Estonian politics: boycotts, torch marches, ministerial insults. Researchers place it as radical right with a post-Soviet national-liberation accent. On energy it defends oil-shale jobs in Ida-Viru against phase-out timetables, fusing class and national grievances in a single constituency.
Voter demographics
EKRE voters are rural men, southern counties (Vorumaa, Valgamaa), small farmers, forest owners, truckers and Russian-sceptic patriots. The party overperforms among vocational youth and underperforms among Tallinn professionals, university graduates and ethnic Russians — though Ida-Viru outreach has dented the latter. Men outnumber women; churchgoers and defence-league members sympathise. Former Pro Patria conservatives supply cadres; former non-voters supply masses. The gender-education gradient is steep: practical schooling predicts EKRE, postgraduate predicts Reform. Turnout is passionate — flag-waving rallies mobilise — but the liberal cordon caps conversion, making EKRE the largest party of the excluded. Overseas Estonians voting online lean surprisingly sympathetic, valuing the party and the defence of language over its domestic controversies.
FAQ
Conservative People’s Party of Estonia polls: frequently asked questions
What is Conservative People’s Party of Estonia polling at in 2026?
Conservative People’s Party of Estonia polls 12.8% in Estonia as of October 2026, based on the last 5 verified readings. The figure updates with every verified release.
Is Conservative People’s Party of Estonia rising or falling in the polls?
Conservative People’s Party of Estonia is rising: ++2.4 points this quarter in Estonia, with the poll average at 12.8%. A second consecutive quarterly move in the same direction would confirm the trend.
How is the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia polling average calculated?
The 12.8% headline is the mean of the last 5 verified readings in Estonia — including the latest from Norstat. Full rules are on our Methodology page.
When is the next election for Conservative People’s Party of Estonia?
The next Parliamentary in Estonia is expected around 2027 (2027-03-07). Conservative People’s Party of Estonia heads into that race averaging 12.8% — the number to watch as the campaign takes shape.
How does Conservative People’s Party of Estonia compare to other right-wing parties worldwide?
Conservative People’s Party of Estonia ranks #45 of 56 tracked parties by verified polling average (12.8%) — 11.1 points below the 23.9% board mean. The leaderboard on our overview page re-sorts with every verified release.
What do reitingud polls say about Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond)?
In Estonia, "reitingud" searches land on the same verified average: Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) polls 12.8% as of October 2026 ahead of the Riigikogu race. Local trackers and our poll-of-polls converge on this figure — single surveys move it only if confirmed.
What do Norstat / Turu-uuringute / Kantar Emor polls say about EKRE?
Accredited houses tracked for Estonia include Norstat, Turu-uuringute, Kantar Emor. The 12.8% headline is the mean of the last 5 verified readings — so no single Norstat release decides it alone; persistence across houses is the signal. See Methodology for inclusion rules.
