Independent Ireland (II) polls 2026: 5.6% average & trends in Ireland
Ireland · Right-wing Polling
Verified average · Sunday Independent · October 2026 · Rank #51 worldwide
Party Leader
Michael Collins
Current Seats
4 / 174
Last Election
3.6% · 2024
Next Election
2028
More context: Ireland polling tracker
Polling history · verified readings
Each point is a verified scrape record · hover for details
6M low
2.5%
6M average
4.1%
6M high
5.4%
Verified average · not a prediction
How the average is built
Ø 5.6% = mean of the last 5 verified readings · sources: Sunday Independent, The Irish Times, Business Post
Sunday Independent
5.0%
1,000
+1.0%
4 Oct 2026
The Irish Times
4.0%
1,200
-1.0%
22 Sep 2026
Business Post
5.0%
1,010
-2.0%
9 Sep 2026
Sunday Independent
7.0%
1,044
0.0%
4 Sep 2026
Sunday Independent
7.0%
1,384
0.0%
31 Jul 2026
Headline Ø 5.6% = mean of the last 5 verified readings from Sunday Independent, The Irish Times, Business Post, recorded 2026-10-15. Full verified history is plotted above — see Methodology.
Live summary · October 2026
Independent Ireland (II) polling analysis & live summary — Ireland
October 2026 update: Independent Ireland (II) polls 5.6% in Ireland (poll-of-polls avg of 5 recent verified polls), rising +1.0 points on the quarter. Latest verified reading from Sunday Independent, recorded 2026-10-15.
That puts Independent Ireland at #51 of 56 tracked parties worldwide. Next vote: General · date TBA. The verified-history chart above plots every stored reading — persistence across releases, not a single headline, is the signal.
Analysis
What the numbers say
Independent Ireland polls 5.6% in Ireland (poll-of-polls avg of 5 recent verified polls), up 1.0 points this quarter.
↗ Surging momentum
Independent Ireland polls 5.6% in Ireland (poll-of-polls avg of 5 verified readings), gaining +1.0 points over the last quarter with a +3.2 point move across the verified window. That places Independent Ireland #51 of 56 tracked parties worldwide, with room to climb toward the leading pack.
If Independent Ireland can capitalize on current trends, consecutive gains tend to compound through media coverage, donor confidence and bandwagon polling effects. Watch whether the next round of releases confirms the average above 5.6% — a hold above that line would signal consolidation rather than a single-poll outlier, while a second straight quarterly gain would put rivals under severe strategic pressure.
Verified basis
5 recent polls
Last update
October 2026
Country
Ireland
Quarterly Δ
+1.0 pts
Polling analysis
Independent Ireland (II) polls at 5.6% in Ireland: current standing, ideology and pollster breakdown
Current standing
Independent Ireland is currently averaging 5.6% in national polling, reflecting a 1.0% shift upward over the last quarter. Independent Ireland currently sits at 5.6% based on verified records. The figure is the mean of verified readings — no generated institutes, no interpolated weeks. Verified source: Sunday Independent, recorded 2026-10-15. accredited readings into a single 5.6% average — smoothing single-poll outliers and opposing house effects. If the next releases confirm Independent Ireland above 5.6%, the quarter counts as consolidation rather than noise. See the full Ireland polling tracker for coalition context.
Key issues & ideology
Independent Ireland ideology is rural-populist common sense: cap refugee intakes, prioritise Irish homeless, pause wind-farm and transmission sprawl, defend nitrates derogation, suckler cows and live exports, and devolve power to councils. The party demands tougher sentencing for rural crime and assaults, hospital investment for regions and the defence of pubs, post offices and GAA clubs as infrastructure.
Voters asking "who is Independent Ireland?" or "what does Independent Ireland stand for?" find the party classified here as social conservatism, law and order, right-wing populism — positioning that explains both its ceiling near 5.6% and where further growth must come from.
Pollster breakdown: how the 5.6% average is built
The table below shows the verified readings behind the headline (Sunday Independent, The Irish Times, Business Post — each row names its pollster so the source is fully transparent). Accredited houses tracked for Ireland include Red C, Ipsos B&A, Ireland Thinks, Behaviour & Attitudes, Opinium — see Methodology for inclusion rules.
| Pollster | Figure | Sample | Change | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday Independent | 5.0% | 1,000 | +1.0% | 4 Oct 2026 |
| The Irish Times | 4.0% | 1,200 | -1.0% | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Business Post | 5.0% | 1,010 | -2.0% | 9 Sep 2026 |
| Sunday Independent | 7.0% | 1,044 | 0.0% | 4 Sep 2026 |
| Sunday Independent | 7.0% | 1,384 | 0.0% | 31 Jul 2026 |
Party profile
Independent Ireland: history, ideology and voters
A concise reference on Independent Ireland of Ireland — where it comes from, what it stands for, and who votes for it.
History
Independent Ireland (II) was founded in November 2023 by Michael Collins and Richard O and Donoghue — sitting TDs expelled from the Rural Independents over leadership rows — as a party for the common-sense countryside. Ireland and the political soil had been prepared by years of rural revolt: dairy-nitrates fury, wind-farm and pylon protests, the 2024 farmer demonstrations and fury at Dublin-mandated refugee accommodation in villages and hotels. Contesting its first general election in November 2024, II took 3.6 percent and 4 seats, outpolling Sinn Fein in several Munster boxes and establishing a Dail foothold. Under Collins and the West Cork folksiness the party built council seats in the 2024 locals and a recognisable brand: flat caps, parish meetings, anti-dump and anti-pylon campaigns. Through 2025-26 it polled near 5 percent, courting the Aontu-adjacent socially conservative vote and Fine Gael defectors while insisting — so far — on opposition purity over coalition deals. Collins and the 2026 Dail performances on nitrates exemptions and asylum-hotel controversies gave the party its first sustained national media presence beyond agricultural pages.
Ideology
Independent Ireland ideology is rural-populist common sense: cap refugee intakes, prioritise Irish homeless, pause wind-farm and transmission sprawl, defend nitrates derogation, suckler cows and live exports, and devolve power to councils. The party demands tougher sentencing for rural crime and assaults, hospital investment for regions and the defence of pubs, post offices and GAA clubs as infrastructure. Economically it is small-business and farmer-first with pension protection. Socially it is quietly conservative — the 2024 referendums and defeats cheered it — without leading with abortion. EU positions are pragmatic-sceptic: funds welcome, Mercosur beef and nature-restoration laws resisted. Scholars file II as agrarian-populist right, Ireland and the belated entrant to a European family long absent from the island. On policing it demands a dedicated rural-garda taskforce and mandatory sentencing for farm-equipment theft, retail versions of the wider law-and-order wave.
Voter demographics
II voters are Munster and Connacht countrymen: dairy farmers, publicans, builders, fishermen and home helps in Cork South-West, Kerry, Tipperary and Mayo. The party overperforms among middle-aged men, vocational voters and Mass-goers, and underperforms in Dublin, among graduates, students and public-sector professionals. Former Fianna Fail and Fine Gael ruralists supply converts; Sinn Fein protest voters flirt. Women support through community-safety and health appeals. Mart queues, creamery meetings and parish newsletters supply organisation. Turnout is personal: the candidate, not the party, mobilises — the classic independent tradition in party form. Small-town publicans and undertakers — the traditional brokers of rural opinion — have become informal II organisers in several constituencies.
FAQ
Independent Ireland polls: frequently asked questions
What is Independent Ireland polling at in 2026?
Independent Ireland polls 5.6% in Ireland as of October 2026, based on the last 5 verified readings. The figure updates with every verified release.
Is Independent Ireland rising or falling in the polls?
Independent Ireland is rising: ++1.0 points this quarter in Ireland, with the poll average at 5.6%. A second consecutive quarterly move in the same direction would confirm the trend.
How is the Independent Ireland polling average calculated?
The 5.6% headline is the mean of the last 5 verified readings in Ireland — including the latest from Sunday Independent. Full rules are on our Methodology page.
When is the next election for Independent Ireland?
The next General in Ireland has no official date yet. Independent Ireland averages 5.6% in current polling — the baseline every future campaign will start from.
How does Independent Ireland compare to other right-wing parties worldwide?
Independent Ireland ranks #51 of 56 tracked parties by verified polling average (5.6%) — 18.3 points below the 23.9% board mean. The leaderboard on our overview page re-sorts with every verified release.
What do opinion polls polls say about Independent Ireland?
In Ireland, "opinion polls" searches land on the same verified average: Independent Ireland (II) polls 5.6% as of October 2026 ahead of the Dáil Éireann race. Local trackers and our poll-of-polls converge on this figure — single surveys move it only if confirmed.
What do Red C / Ipsos B&A / Ireland Thinks polls say about II?
Accredited houses tracked for Ireland include Red C, Ipsos B&A, Ireland Thinks. The 5.6% headline is the mean of the last 5 verified readings — so no single Red C release decides it alone; persistence across houses is the signal. See Methodology for inclusion rules.
