Law and Justice (PiS) polls 2026: 21.0% average & trends in Poland
Poland · Right-wing Polling
Verified average · Kantar · October 2026 · Rank #32 worldwide
Party Leader
Jarosław Kaczyński
Current Seats
194 / 460
Last Election
35.4% · 2023
Next Election
2027
More context: Poland polling tracker · election outlook
Polling history · verified readings
Each point is a verified scrape record · hover for details
6M low
21.0%
6M average
30.6%
6M high
40.0%
Verified average · not a prediction
How the average is built
Ø 21.0% = latest verified reading · latest: Kantar
Kantar
21.0%
—
-15.8%
Oct 15, 2026
Headline Ø 21.0% = latest verified reading from Kantar, recorded 2026-10-15. Full verified history is plotted above — see Methodology.
Live summary · October 2026
Law and Justice (PiS) — Prawo i Sprawiedliwość polling analysis & live summary — Poland
October 2026 update: Law and Justice (PiS) — Prawo i Sprawiedliwość polls 21.0% in Poland (latest verified poll (Kantar)), cooling -15.8 points on the quarter. Latest verified reading from Kantar, recorded 2026-10-15.
That puts Law and Justice at #32 of 56 tracked parties worldwide. Next vote: Parliamentary on 2027-11-11 (in 391 days). The verified-history chart above plots every stored reading — persistence across releases, not a single headline, is the signal.
Analysis
What the numbers say
Law and Justice polls 21.0% in Poland (latest verified poll (Kantar)), down 15.8 points this quarter.
↘ Facing headwinds
Law and Justice has dropped by 15.8 points to a 21.0% average in Poland (latest verified reading), with a -19.0 point shift across the verified window. The pullback does not erase its structural position — but it warrants attention. That places Law and Justice #32 of 56 tracked parties worldwide, with room to climb toward the leading pack.
The key question is whether this is consolidation or the start of a slide: a second consecutive quarterly decline would suggest the 15.8-point drop is a trend rather than noise. The next round of releases is the decisive test — stabilisation near 21.0% would indicate a floor, while further erosion would force a rethink of strategy, messaging and voter targeting.
Verified basis
Latest poll
Last update
October 2026
Country
Poland
Quarterly Δ
-15.8 pts
Polling analysis
Law and Justice (PiS) polls at 21.0% in Poland: current standing, ideology and pollster breakdown
Current standing
Law and Justice is currently averaging 21.0% in national polling, reflecting a 15.8% shift downward over the last quarter. Law and Justice (locally listed as Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) currently sits at 21.0% based on verified records. The figure is the mean of verified readings — no generated institutes, no interpolated weeks. Verified source: Kantar, recorded 2026-10-15. accredited readings into a single 21.0% average — smoothing single-poll outliers and opposing house effects. Stabilisation near 21.0% in the next releases would mark a floor; further erosion would confirm a slide. See the full Poland polling tracker and the upcoming election outlook for coalition context.
Key issues & ideology
PiS ideology is Catholic-national conservatism with left-wing economics: God, nation, family and redistribution. It defends traditional marriage, unborn life and Catholic education, demands historical policy honouring wartime martyrdom and anti-communism, and views Germany, Brussels and liberal elites as perennial threats to sovereignty.
Voters asking "who is Law and Justice?" or "what does Law and Justice stand for?" find the party classified here as eurosceptic, national conservatism, right-wing populism — positioning that explains both its ceiling near 21.0% and where further recovery must come from.
Pollster breakdown: how the 21.0% average is built
The table below shows the verified reading behind the headline (Kantar — each row names its pollster so the source is fully transparent). Accredited houses tracked for Poland include Kantar, Ipsos, IBRiS, CBOS, United Surveys, Opinia24 — see Methodology for inclusion rules.
| Pollster | Figure | Sample | Change | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kantar | 21.0% | — | -15.8% | Oct 15, 2026 |
Party profile
Law and Justice: history, ideology and voters
A concise reference on Law and Justice of Poland — where it comes from, what it stands for, and who votes for it.
History
Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc, PiS) was founded in 2001 by the Kaczynski twins, Lech and Jaroslaw, on the ruins of the Solidarity Electoral Action, promising a moral renewal and a Fourth Republic purged of communist networks. After Lech and the 2005 presidency win and a short-lived government, the 2007 defeat and the 2010 Smolensk catastrophe — killing President Lech Kaczynski and 95 others — forged the party and the martyrology and Jaroslaw and the unchallenged command. PiS returned in 2015 with the first single-party majority of the Third Republic and governed eight transformative years: 500+ child benefits, lower retirement age, judicial overhaul triggering EU rule-of-law sanctions, state capture of public media, near-total abortion ban and confrontation with Brussels and Berlin. The October 2023 election ended the reign: PiS won a plurality (35.4 percent) but lost its majority to a Donald Tusk-led coalition spanning left to centre-right. In opposition since, the party faces depleted state resources, prosecutions of former ministers and a 2025 presidential defeat, yet retains a disciplined 30-percent electorate awaiting Tusk and the stumbles.
Ideology
PiS ideology is Catholic-national conservatism with left-wing economics: God, nation, family and redistribution. It defends traditional marriage, unborn life and Catholic education, demands historical policy honouring wartime martyrdom and anti-communism, and views Germany, Brussels and liberal elites as perennial threats to sovereignty. Economically it broke with shock-therapy liberalism: generous family transfers, pension bonuses (13th and 14th pensions), minimum-wage hikes and state champions in energy and banking. Judicial reforms subordinating courts to elected power and media laws favouring public broadcasters expressed the illiberal-democratic theory openly admired in Budapest. Foreign policy is Atlanticist (American bases, arms purchases) and hawkish on Russia, paired with fury at German-Russian energy deals. Scholars describe a nationalist-populist party that preserved democracy and the forms while hollowing its liberal substance — the EU and the central rule-of-law case study.
Voter demographics
PiS voters are the Poland of churches, villages and small towns: older, less educated, eastern (Podkarpacie, Lubelszczyzna, Podlasie) and attached to parish life. Pensioners bought by transfer programmes, farmers shielded by subsidies, miners, foresters and public-sector workers in the east form the core. Women over 60 are the most PiS-loyal demographic; young urban graduates the least, with voters under 30 breaking heavily for Civic Coalition, Confederation or the Left. The party wins practising Catholics overwhelmingly and loses atheists and the same intensity. State employees, uniformed services and lottery-beneficiaries of 500+ lean PiS; entrepreneurs, managers and IT workers lean away. Turnout is structurally high in PiS areas thanks to parish and local-government mobilisation, but the coalition ages: each cycle the electorate literally shrinks, forcing the party to chase youth it culturally repels.
FAQ
Law and Justice polls: frequently asked questions
What is Law and Justice polling at in 2026?
Law and Justice polls 21.0% in Poland as of October 2026, based on the latest verified reading from Kantar. The figure updates with every verified release.
Is Law and Justice rising or falling in the polls?
Law and Justice is falling: -15.8 points this quarter in Poland, with the poll average at 21.0%. A second consecutive quarterly move in the same direction would confirm the trend.
How is the Law and Justice polling average calculated?
The 21.0% headline is the latest verified reading from Kantar in Poland. Full rules are on our Methodology page.
When is the next election for Law and Justice?
The next Parliamentary in Poland is expected around 2027 (2027-11-11). Law and Justice heads into that race averaging 21.0% — the number to watch as the campaign takes shape.
How does Law and Justice compare to other right-wing parties worldwide?
Law and Justice ranks #32 of 56 tracked parties by verified polling average (21.0%) — 2.9 points below the 23.9% board mean. The leaderboard on our overview page re-sorts with every verified release.
What do sondaże wyborcze polls say about Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość)?
In Poland, "sondaże wyborcze" searches land on the same verified average: Law and Justice (PiS) polls 21.0% as of October 2026 ahead of the Sejm race. Local trackers and our poll-of-polls converge on this figure — single surveys move it only if confirmed.
What do Kantar / Ipsos / IBRiS polls say about PiS?
Accredited houses tracked for Poland include Kantar, Ipsos, IBRiS. The 21.0% headline is the mean of the last verified reading from Kantar — so no single Kantar release decides it alone; persistence across houses is the signal. See Methodology for inclusion rules.
