Independence Party (SSF) polls 2026: 19.4% average & trends in Iceland
Iceland · Right-wing Polling
Verified average · Gallup · October 2026 · Rank #35 worldwide
Party Leader
Bjarni Benediktsson
Current Seats
14 / 63
Last Election
19.4% · 2024
Next Election
2028
More context: Iceland polling tracker · election outlook
Polling history · verified readings
Each point is a verified scrape record · hover for details
6M low
19.4%
6M average
19.4%
6M high
19.4%
Verified average · not a prediction
How the average is built
Ø 19.4% = latest verified reading · latest: Gallup
Gallup
19.4%
—
0.0%
Oct 14, 2026
Headline Ø 19.4% = latest verified reading from Gallup, recorded 2026-10-14. Full verified history is plotted above — see Methodology.
Live summary · October 2026
Independence Party (SSF) — Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn polling analysis & live summary — Iceland
October 2026 update: Independence Party (SSF) — Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn polls 19.4% in Iceland (latest verified poll (Gallup)), steady +0.0 points on the quarter. Latest verified reading from Gallup, recorded 2026-10-14.
That puts Independence Party at #35 of 56 tracked parties worldwide. Next vote: Parliamentary on 2028-11-30 (in 776 days). The verified-history chart above plots every stored reading — persistence across releases, not a single headline, is the signal.
Analysis
What the numbers say
Independence Party polls 19.4% in Iceland (latest verified poll (Gallup)), essentially unchanged this quarter.
→ Holding steady
Independence Party polls 19.4% in Iceland (latest verified reading), essentially unchanged this quarter with a +0.0 point drift across the verified window. Stability near this level suggests a solidified voter base but limited near-term upside. That places Independence Party #35 of 56 tracked parties worldwide, with room to climb toward the leading pack.
For a party in this position, the task is to convert a plateau into a platform: a breakout in either direction in the next round of surveys would be the first meaningful signal after a flat quarter. Until then, organisational depth and turnout efficiency matter more than headlines.
Verified basis
Latest poll
Last update
October 2026
Country
Iceland
Quarterly Δ
+0.0 pts
Polling analysis
Independence Party (SSF) polls at 19.4% in Iceland: current standing, ideology and pollster breakdown
Current standing
Independence Party is currently averaging 19.4% in national polling, essentially unchanged over the last quarter. Independence Party (locally listed as Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn) currently sits at 19.4% based on verified records. The figure is the mean of verified readings — no generated institutes, no interpolated weeks. Verified source: Gallup, recorded 2026-10-14. accredited readings into a single 19.4% average — smoothing single-poll outliers and opposing house effects. A breakout in either direction in the next releases would be the first meaningful signal after a flat quarter. See the full Iceland polling tracker and the upcoming election outlook for coalition context.
Key issues & ideology
The Independence Party is a liberal-conservative catch-all: free enterprise, fisheries-quota defence, low corporate taxes and Atlanticist security without an army. It demands EU-membership rejection (application withdrawn under its watch), whaling and fisheries sovereignty, energy-intensive industry expansion and homeowner-friendly mortgage policy.
Voters asking "who is Independence Party?" or "what does Independence Party stand for?" find the party classified here as national conservatism, right-wing populism, atlanticism — positioning that explains both its ceiling near 19.4% and where further growth must come from.
Pollster breakdown: how the 19.4% average is built
The table below shows the verified reading behind the headline (Gallup — each row names its pollster so the source is fully transparent). Accredited houses tracked for Iceland include Gallup, Maskína, MMR, Prósent — see Methodology for inclusion rules.
| Pollster | Figure | Sample | Change | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallup | 19.4% | — | 0.0% | Oct 14, 2026 |
Party profile
Independence Party: history, ideology and voters
A concise reference on Independence Party of Iceland — where it comes from, what it stands for, and who votes for it.
History
The Independence Party (Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn) was founded in 1929 through the merger of the Conservative and Liberal parties, and has been the dominant force in Icelandic politics for nearly a century — in government for most of the period since independence from Denmark in 1944. Under leaders like Ólafur Thors, Geir Hallgrímsson and Davíð Oddsson — prime minister for thirteen years (1991-2004) and architect of quota-market fisheries reform and banking liberalisation — it built the Icelandic model of EU-sceptic Atlanticism and resource capitalism. The 2008 banking collapse (kreppa) under a party-led government inflicted historic defeat, but the party recovered to lead governments under Bjarni Benediktsson in 2013-2016 and 2017-2024. The November 2024 snap election cut it to 19.4 percent and 14 of 63 seats, pushing it into opposition against a Social Democratic-led coalition for the first time in years. Through 2025-26 the party polled near 20 percent under Benediktsson, rebuilding as the pro-business opposition. The next parliamentary election is due by 2028.
Ideology
The Independence Party is a liberal-conservative catch-all: free enterprise, fisheries-quota defence, low corporate taxes and Atlanticist security without an army. It demands EU-membership rejection (application withdrawn under its watch), whaling and fisheries sovereignty, energy-intensive industry expansion and homeowner-friendly mortgage policy. Socially it is moderately conservative with libertarian tolerance, accepting Iceland and the liberal consensus on gender and LGBTQ rights. Compared with the Nordic centre-right it is more market-purist and EU-sceptic; compared with populists it is institutional and governing-minded. Scholars place it as the Icelandic establishment right: business, boat-owners and professionals united by independence mythology. On climate it backs geothermal and hydro expansion against highland-conservation blocking, the defining Reykjavik-versus-regions cleavage.
Voter demographics
Independence Party voters are Reykjavik professionals, Gardabaer and Hafnarfjordur suburbanites, boat-owners, quota-holders and business families, with fortresses in affluent Reykjavik districts and the southwest. Its electorate skews older and higher-income, over-representing the self-employed, managers and fisheries-linked households. Young progressives, students, public-sector renters and rural leftists lean elsewhere. Women support at slightly lower rates than men. Education effects are positive for the party among business graduates. Coastal fishing towns split between party loyalty and populist challengers. Turnout is dutiful: the party and the machine votes in all weathers, a stabilising asset that cushioned the 2024 defeat and keeps it the largest opposition force.
FAQ
Independence Party polls: frequently asked questions
What is Independence Party polling at in 2026?
Independence Party polls 19.4% in Iceland as of October 2026, based on the latest verified reading from Gallup. The figure updates with every verified release.
Is Independence Party rising or falling in the polls?
Independence Party is holding steady: ++0.0 points this quarter in Iceland, with the poll average at 19.4%. A second consecutive quarterly move in the same direction would confirm the trend.
How is the Independence Party polling average calculated?
The 19.4% headline is the latest verified reading from Gallup in Iceland. Full rules are on our Methodology page.
When is the next election for Independence Party?
The next Parliamentary in Iceland is expected around 2028 (2028-11-30). Independence Party heads into that race averaging 19.4% — the number to watch as the campaign takes shape.
How does Independence Party compare to other right-wing parties worldwide?
Independence Party ranks #35 of 56 tracked parties by verified polling average (19.4%) — 4.5 points below the 23.9% board mean. The leaderboard on our overview page re-sorts with every verified release.
What do kannanir polls say about Independence Party (Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn)?
In Iceland, "kannanir" searches land on the same verified average: Independence Party (SSF) polls 19.4% as of October 2026 ahead of the Althing race. Local trackers and our poll-of-polls converge on this figure — single surveys move it only if confirmed.
What do Gallup / Maskína / MMR polls say about SSF?
Accredited houses tracked for Iceland include Gallup, Maskína, MMR. The 19.4% headline is the mean of the last verified reading from Gallup — so no single Gallup release decides it alone; persistence across houses is the signal. See Methodology for inclusion rules.
